Madera, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

250
FXUS66 KHNX 030511
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1011 PM PDT Fri May 2 2025

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation Section.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Temperatures will remain warm, or several degrees above
seasonal averages today.

2. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
redevelop this afternoon and last into the early evening hours,
although mainly over the mountains.

3. A cooldown and stronger low pressure system will bring a
chance of more widespread precipitation and locally gusty winds
for the weekend.

4. Drying and warming return by the middle of next week with
well above normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mainly clear skies prevail across the forecast
area at this time, although a few cumulus cloud buildups have
begun over the mountains. The marine layer appears quite deep
just looking at visible satellite imagery, with fog and stratus
well inland along the Central and Southern CA coasts to the
coastal and transverse ranges. Latest Ft Ord Profiler data show
about a marine layer about 2,500 feet thick, which was similar
to yesterday. Another round of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will develop with a 15-30 percent probability
across the mountains from Yosemite to Kern County, including the
far southern Sierra to the Tehachapi Mountains and the Frazier
Park area. Elsewhere, today`s highs are projected to reach the
mid to upper 80`s in both the valley and desert, or similar to
yesterday. The probability of highs above 85 degrees for these
areas are about 50 to 90 percent, with lesser chances towards
Los Banos and Merced as some ocean-cooled air could begin to
flow into these portions with the upper-level trough just
offshore.

The upper-level trough will push inland over Central California
by Saturday morning, and the next round of precipitation
begins. Precipitation becomes more widespread by the afternoon,
and isolated thunderstorms develop over mainly the Sierra
Nevada. A much cooler day is on tap with highs mainly in the
70`s in the lower elevations. Sunday will also remain cool and
unsettled. Snow levels appear to be mainly above 6,000 feet but
rise to about 7,000-8,000 feet at times, and about 2-3 inches of
snow are possible in the highest elevations each day on
Saturday and Sunday. The probability of at least 3 inches of
snow in a 24-hour period is about 20-40 percent during both days
and focused mainly from Yosemite NP to Sequoia NP. Gusty winds
have a good chance to develop in the Kern County desert by
Saturday afternoon and last until at least Sunday morning, with
the best chances over the Mojave Desert slopes (about a 40 to 50
percent chance).

A few lingering mountain showers last into Monday, but most
areas will begin to warm noticeably, including in the Central
Valley where temperature rise back to around seasonal values.
A warming trend will continue into midweek, with the first
90-degree readings of the year in many valley locations by at
least Thursday. Latest 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks from the
Climate Prediction Center are now tilted towards above average
temperatures and near average precipitation (daily average
precipitation is generally near zero in many of our locations
during much of May). So, it will begin to feel more like
summer. While highs in the lower 90`s are most likely for the
warmest locations of the SJ Valley, a low chance (about 5-12
percent chance) of triple digit heat exists in the latest NBM
guidance for next Friday in portions of this area.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update:

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours in much of the
San Joaquin Valley, except for MVFR and -SHRA in eastern
portions after 18Z Saturday. Scattered showers with high
elevation snow expected over the Sierra by 12Z Saturday, as well
as IFR due to mountain obscurations.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 8 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ338.
Wind Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 2 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ337-
339.

&&

$$

BSO/SM

weather.gov/hanford